Jianfa Tsai’s Input
ELI5: The black swan model; how to practically apply it? Krogerus, M., & Tschappeler, R. (2023). The decision book: Fifty models for strategic thinking (New ed.). Profile Books.
Explanation
Imagine you only ever see white swans your entire life, so you assume all swans are white. Then, out of nowhere, you see a black swan, and it completely shocks you because you thought it was impossible. The Black Swan model is a way of looking at the world that reminds us that massive, completely unexpected events—like a sudden global emergency, a surprise technology invention, or a massive market crash—can happen at any time, even if we cannot predict them, and they completely change the rules of the game. Instead of trying to guess when these surprises will happen, the model teaches us to build our lives, studies, and businesses like a strong castle so that when a big surprise does arrive, we do not get hurt and can actually find hidden opportunities to succeed.
Most Important Point
You cannot predict a Black Swan event, so you must focus on building resilience and flexibility to survive and profit from the unexpected.
Application Steps
- Create a Personal Safety Net: Build an emergency fund with three to six months of living expenses and diversify your skill sets so that a sudden economic shift or unexpected job loss does not leave you vulnerable.
- Diversify Academic Pursuits: Avoid over-specializing in one narrow field of study by taking interdisciplinary electives, ensuring your knowledge base remains adaptable if technological disruptions render a specific industry obsolete.
- Build Redundancy into Work Projects: Avoid single points of failure in your professional projects by cross-training team members and securing alternative suppliers or software backups, which ensures operations continue smoothly during sudden system disruptions.
- Adopt an Experimental Mindset: Allocate a small portion of your time and resources to high-risk, high-reward passion projects or innovative work experiments, allowing you to capture massive positive “Black Swan” opportunities when they arise.
Date
Saturday, June 6, 2026, 7:24 PM AEST
Authors
Jianfa Tsai (https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1809-1686) in collaboration with Gemini AI Pro.
References
Krogerus, M., & Tschäppeler, R. (2023). The decision book: Fifty models for strategic thinking (New ed.). Profile Books.